Ensemble-Based Forecast Uncertainty Analysis of Diverse Heavy Rainfall Events

3. Frequency Distributions of Heavy Rainfall Events

The data used in developing the frequency relations consisted of both daily and hourly precipitation records from Illinois and from nearby stations in surrounding states. The daily data, mostly from nonrecording raingages, spanned the 83-year period from 1901 through 1983. They included data from the 61 precipitation-reporting stations discussed previously (figure 71, whose records had been car...

3. Frequency Distributions of Heavy Rainfall Events

The data used in developing the frequency relations consisted of both daily and hourly precipitation records from Illinois and from nearby stations in surrounding states. The daily data, mostly from nonrecording raingages, spanned the 83-year period from 1901 through 1983. They included data from the 61 precipitation-reporting stations discussed previously (figure 71, whose records had been car...

Final Report: Development of a Large Member Ensemble Forecast System for Heavy Rainfall using Evolutionary Programming (EP)

Ensemble Forecast: A New Approach to Uncertainty and Predictability

Ensemble techniques have been used to generate daily numerical weather forecasts since the 1990s in numerical centers around the world due to the increase in computation ability. One of the main purposes of numerical ensemble forecasts is to try to assimilate the initial uncertainty (initial error) and the forecast uncertainty (forecast error) by applying either the initial perturbation method ...

Evidence for trends in heavy rainfall events over the UK.

Daily precipitation in the UK has changed over the period 1961-2000, becoming on average more intense in winter and less intense in summer. Recent increases in total winter precipitation are shown to be mainly due to an increase in the amount of precipitation on wet days, with a smaller contribution in the western UK from a trend towards more wet days. If the wet-day amounts are modelled using ...